CAD’s rally continued this week, with USD/CAD breaking decisively below 1.24. Economists at ING believe USD/CAD downside potential should be more contained in the week ahead.

Inflation set to confirm the need for tapering

“We think that a headline rate around 4.0% should allow markets to further reinforce their view around the prospect of the Bank of Canada ending QE by year-end. Any above-consensus read may fuel speculation that the Bank will start tightening earlier in 2H22 and add support to CAD. Still, we don’t think the USD correction has long legs, so USD/CAD downside potential should be more contained in the week ahead.”

“One topic that should attract increasing market interest is the BoC mandate, which is due for renewal by the end of this year. We are inclined to think the current inflation target (2%, with a +/- 1% tolerance band) will be renewed, although there is some speculation it could be made more flexible, like in the US.”