• USD/INR takes offers to refresh weekly low during two-day downtrend.
• 100-SMA, five-week-old resistance line guards immediate upside.
• Descending RSI line, not oversold, adds to the bearish bias.
• 200-SMA adds to the upside filters, multiple tops of September strengthen 73.85 support.

USD/INR stands on slippery grounds towards 74.00, down 0.15% intraday to form weekly bottom around 74.16. In doing so, the Indian rupee pair (INR) drops for the second consecutive day heading into Thursday’s European session.

The pair’s pullback on Wednesday could be linked to the failures to cross a convergence of the 100-SMA and a descending trend line from October 12, near 74.50. Also exerting downside pressure on the quote is the descending RSI line, not oversold.

Hence, USD/INR bears are all set to retest the monthly low of 73.85. However, any further weakness will be challenged as the bulls couldn’t cross the 73.85 level multiple times in September.

Should the quote drops below 73.85 on a daily closing basis, the mid-September’s swing low near 73.35 will be in focus ahead of the key 72.90 support level.

On the flip side, recovery moves need to cross the 74.50 level to convince USD/INR buyers.

Even so, a confluence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of October-November drop, close 74.75, will be a tough nut to crack for the pair bulls, a break of which won’t hesitate to cross the 75.00 threshold.

USD/INR: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further weakness expected