According to the latest New York Fed survey, median one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 6.0% in November from 5.7% in October. Median three-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.0% from 4.2%. Median uncertainty regarding future inflation outcomes rose at both the short and medium-term horizons, both teachings their highest levels since the survey was launched in 2013. 

Meanwhile, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth dropped to 2.8% in November from 3.0% in October. That means consumers expected inflation over the course of the next year to outpace their earnings growth by 3.2%, the widest such gap since the launch of the survey. Elsewhere, the median one-year-ahead expected rise in home prices decreased to 5.0% from 5.7%.  

Market Reaction

Markets have not reacted to the survey, with attention firmly on key US data and the Fed meeting later this week.