EUR/RON continues to struggle to surpass the 4.95 mark. Economists at ING believe that the pair will be able to reach the 5.00 level in the last quarter of the year.

Hitting a wall at 4.95

“The NBR continued with rate hikes ‘at its own pace’, which currently means that Romania has the lowest key rate of the CE4 group. Given the large twin deficits and high inflation, we believe that this situation is sustainable for only the very short term.”

“As expected, 4.95 is a very strong resistance as official offers seem to prop the leu by as much as needed. We expect much of the same for most of 2022.” 

“EUR/RON will not depart from the current levels before inflation is safely on a downward trend. This seems to be a matter for the last quarter of 2022 when we expect the pair to hit the 5.00 level.”