Do changes in gold and Bitcoin prices contain useful information? Analysts at Natixis seek to determine whether changes in gold or Bitcoin prices provide information on investors’ perception of future monetary policy, future inflation, future share price movements and dollar’s exchange rate. 

Gold and Bitcoin price have a stable correlation only with monetary policy

“We find for the gold price a significant correlation with long-term interest rates (negative) in the US and the OECD, the monetary base (positive) in the US and the OECD, dollar’s exchange rate, to a lesser degree (a depreciation drives up the gold price) but not the stock market index or inflation.”

“For the Bitcoin price, we find a significant correlation with long-term interest rates (negative) in the US and the OECD, rhe monetary base (positive) in the US and the OECD but not with the stock market index, inflation or the dollar’s exchange rate.”