Near-term bias for further EUR weakness rises even as Germany’s consumption and ifo reports show improvement. In the view of economists at Citibank, the 1.08-1.10 area may offer more durable medium-term support for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD weakness sooner rather than later

“EUR/USD has broken below major range support between 1.1180-1.1210 with leveraged accounts seen selling. This adds to the large real money buying of USD and suggests that the improved German Gfk and ifo reports are unlikely to change EUR’s near-term weakness bias.” 

“With the Fed hinting at optionality on the timing and extent to which it will quantitatively tighten, while ECB tapering and timing of rate-liftoff now seems pretty much discounted, the 1.08-1.10 area may offer more durable medium-term support for EUR/USD (assuming minimal risk from the French parliamentary elections in June).”