• USD/INR pares intraday losses after bouncing off monthly low the previous day.
• 100-SMA, weekly resistance line guard recovery moves, previous support add to the upside filters.
• 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level offers strong support below 200-SMA.

USD/INR struggles to keep the bounce off the 200-SMA, around 74.77, down 0.15% on a day during Tuesday’s Asian session.

The Indian rupee (INR) pair dropped to the lowest since January 24 on Monday before stepping back from a convergence of the 100-SMA and one-week-old descending trend line near 74.95.

That said, the latest rebound from the 200-SMA level near 74.65 gains support from the firmer MACD and RSI. However, a clear upside break of the 74.95 becomes necessary to challenge USD/INR bears.

Even so, the support-turned-resistance from January 12, close to 75.08-10, will probe the pair buyers before giving them controls to aim for January’s peak of 75.34.

During the USD/INR run-up beyond 75.34, the monthly high of 75.70 will be in focus.

On the contrary, 200-SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of January-February upside, respectively around 74.67 and 74.48, will test short-term USD/INR bears.

In a case where the Indian rupee bulls dominate past 74.48, the 74.00 threshold may offer an intermediate halt during the pair’s south-run targeting the previous month’s trough surrounding 73.72.

USD/INR: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further weakness expected