• The Mexican peso holds onto recent gains versus the US dollar.
• Decline capped by the 20.85 support area.
• Emerging market currencies remains resilient despite market sentiment.

The USD/MXN dropped on Monday to 20.82, reaching the lowest level in ten days and extended the correction from the 21.50 area. The pair is hovering around the critical support area of 20.85.

On Monday, equity markets are posting gains supporting the demand for emerging market currencies. The strength is being offset by the correction in commodity prices. Crude oil falls more than 8%.

The war in Ukraine remains the key event. Market participants await the new conversations. Also relevant is the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate hike on Wednesday. Banxico will likely do the same next week. US yields are rising significantly, with the 10-year yield at 2.09%, and the 30-year at 2.45%, both at levels not seen in months.

Among EM currencies, the Russian ruble is the best performer on Monday, followed by the Polish zloty. Latin American currencies are modestly higher.

USD/MXN testing support

The USD/MXN is trading around 20.85, a relevant support that, if broken should clear the way to an extension toward 20.70. Below, the next strong barrier is seen at 20.50. On the upside, a recovery back above 21.00/05 would give momentum to the US dollar. The next resistance at 21.30 seems far for the moment and it should hold initially if tested over the next session.

Technical levels