EUR/NOK could fall towards 9.50 by the summer if energy prices remain high and risk sentiment improves. However, economists at Nordea believe the window for a stronger krone will tighten by the summer because Norges Bank will have to sell NOK by June.

Risk for oil prices remains to the upside, implying more downside in EUR/NOK

“Energy prices remain higher than before the war in Ukraine while risk sentiment is slowly improving. If this holds, EUR/NOK could fall towards 9.50 by the summer. However, Norges Bank will start to sell NOK by June at the latest. We, therefore, see EUR/NOK trading around 10.00 in the longer run.”

“The Fed will raise the key rate on Wednesday and signal even faster rate hikes ahead. Compared the Fed, the ECB will need more time to normalise monetary policy. This argues for a lower EUR/USD; USD/NOK will likely continue to trade around 9.00 ahead.”