The greenback continued to weaken against its major rivals on Thursday but the negative shift in risk sentiment helped the currency shake off the selling pressure early Friday. Economists at ING think it is too early to be jumping back into undervalued EM currencies. Holding commodity currencies makes more sense while they are still fans of the dollar.

US dollar should stay bid on dips

“Thursday saw the dollar broadly offered in a typical 'risk-on' move. There is a camp arguing that the dollar typically sells off in the first six months of a Fed tightening cycle. What is different this time, is the aggressive front-loaded tightening about to be undertaken by the Fed and events in Ukraine which have damaged European growth prospects and will weigh on currencies in the region.” 

“We suspect the dollar will stay bid on dips against European FX and the JPY, while the commodity-exporting currencies can continue to outperform.”

“We see the 97.70/98.00 support area holding in DXY and would favour a move towards 100 into next week.”