Economists at Natixis are trying to examine the effects on the UK economy of the June 2016 referendum that triggered Brexit. They look at the different important variables and seek to determine what the overall effect of Brexit has been on the United Kingdom.

Foreign trade

“UK imports have risen sharply, that the fall in UK exports to the EU has not at all been offset by an increase in exports to other countries, and that overall UK export market shares have fallen sharply.”

Investment

“Total corporate investment has declined, but no more so than in the eurozone; Direct investment inflows have disappeared; Housing investment has remained vigorous.”

Employment, immigration

“We see a decline in the labour force since 2020, due to a decline in immigration that is greater than that of immigration from the EU; A significant loss of employment from 2016 to 2022 compared with the eurozone.”

Per capita GDP and income

“UK GDP grew faster than euro-zone GDP until 2016, which has not been the case since then; The UK’s per capita GDP has fallen, but that is because of the exchange rate.”

Share prices and earnings

“From 2017, share prices fell sharply in the United Kingdom relative to the eurozone; which is consistent with the decline in profitability of UK companies compared with those in the eurozone.”