Economists at Rabobank argue their case for a weaker renminbi in the 12 months to come. They do expect to see a slower and more gradual pace of renminbi weakening than previously anticipated. 

Economic, monetary and political developments point towards a further weakening of CNY

“Despite a stronger than expected performance of USD/CNY during the first quarter of this year we foresee that economic, monetary and political developments (covid policy first and foremost) all point towards a further weakening of CNY relative to the US-dollar.”

“We foresee a gradual weakening to bring USD/CNY to 6.45, 6.50 and 6.55 at the end of respectively the second, third and last quarter of this year. We then see further weakening in twelve months from now with an exchange rate of 6.60.”