A 1.2% rise in the S&P 500 on Tuesday left the index less than 4% below its all-time high and just 2.8% down year-to-date. Economists at UBS expect the S&P 500 Index to move slightly higher towards 4,700 by end-2022.

S&P 500 to soar towards 5,100 on an early end of the war in Ukraine

“Our base case now is for only modest upside for stocks, with our year-end forecast for the S&P 500 at 4,700, less than 2% higher than current levels. This partly reflects risks to corporate profits, and we have recently scaled back our outlook for global earnings growth to 8% (from 10%) for this year, and to 5% (from 7%) in 2023.”

“In our upside scenario of an early end to the conflict and disruptions to commodity markets, we see greater upside for the S&P 500, for a year-end of around 5,100.”

“On the downside, with a protracted conflict, the index could end the year close to 3,600.”