USD/CAD has rebounded from the 1.24 area to 1.26. The release of March’s jobs numbers in Canada is seen as key to direct market expectations ahead of the 13 April Bank of Canada meeting. Canada's jobs numbers should not dent 50bp hike bets, allowing USD/CAD to fall back to 1.25.

Jobs data in focus

“In line with consensus expectations (around +80K), we expect to see a pull-back in the headline employment number after February’s very strong read. That said, employment is already above pre-pandemic levels, wage growth may accelerate, and the economic backdrop remains strong, so we doubt that any disappointment will have a long-lasting impact on CAD.”

“We doubt markets will engage in any material dovish repricing of rate expectations after today’s numbers, which currently embed a 50bp rate hike by the BoC next week.”

“We expect USD/CAD to slip back to 1.25 into the 13 April BoC meeting.”

See – Canada Employment Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, building on the remarkable surge seen in the prior month