Gold managed to hold its ground on safe-haven flows and ended up closing in the upper half of its weekly range above $1,940. As FXStreet’s Eren Sengezer notes, the technical outlook points to a bullish tilt in the near-term.

US March inflation report stands out in economic calendar

“On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. On a yearly basis, CPI is expected to advance to a fresh multi-decade high of 8.3% in March from 7.9% in February.

A stronger-than-expected CPI print could ramp up the odds for two successive 50 bps Fed rate hikes and lift US T-bond yields even higher.”

“The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce monetary policy decisions on Thursday. The bank is widely expected to keep its settings unchanged but a hawkish tilt in forward guidance could open the door to a decisive recovery in EUR/USD and weigh on the dollar. In that case, XAU/USD should be able to edge higher. On the other hand, the bank might turn cautious and focus on the potential negative impact of a protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict on economic activity rather than inflation. In such a scenario, EUR/USD could come under bearish pressure making it difficult for gold to gain traction.”

“$1,950 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as first technical resistance. In case gold rises above that level and starts using it as support, it could target $1,970 (static level) and $1,990 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).”

“Strong support seems to have formed at $1920 (Fibonacci 50% retracement). With a daily close below that level, sellers could take action and drag gold toward $1,910 (50-day SMA) and $1,900 (psychological level).”