In its latest quarterly World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively to 3.6%, reported Reuters.
Key takeaways as summarised by Reuters:
- The IMF warned that rising food and fuel prices could "significantly increase" the risk of social unrest in emerging markets/developing economies.
- The IMF said its downgrade reflected the Russo-Ukraine war's direct impact on Russia and Ukraine, as well as global spillovers, and the institution now sees inflation remaining elevated "for much longer".
- Global growth is seen declining to about 3.3% over the medium term.
- The IMF said war-related supply shortages will amplify existing inflationary pressures, raising the price of food, energy and metals. Shortages are seen lasting into 2023.
- The war in Ukraine is adding to supply shocks seen during the Covid-19 pandemic and will trigger more shortages beyond the energy and agricultural sectors.
- The IMF said inflation is projected at 5.7% in advanced economies in 2022, 1.8% higher than in its January forecast, though is seen declining to 2.5% in 2023.
- The IMF said its growth and inflation forecasts are marked by "high uncertainty" and worsening supply-demand imbalances could lead to persistently higher inflation, as well as slower growth.
- The IMF sees inflation at 8.7% in emerging markets/developing countries, 2.8% higher than in its January forecast, and then declining to 6.5% in 2023.
- The IMF lowered its US GDP growth forecast to 3.7% in 2022 and to 2.3% in 2023, a downgrade of 0.3% for both years from its January forecast.
- The IMF sees a rising risk that inflation expectations become de-anchored, which is prompting more aggressive tightening by central banks.
- The IMF said that the latest covid lockdowns in China could cause new bottlenecks in global supply chains.
- The IMF lowered its Euro area growth forecast to 2.8% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023, down from 3.9% and 2.5% respectively in its January forecast.
- The IMF sees a contraction of 2.9% in emerging and developing Europe in 2022, a drop of 6.4% from its January forecast. Growth is then seen at 1.3% in 2023, versus the previous forecast of 2.9% growth.
- The IMF sees GDP growth in China of 4.4% in 2022 and 5.1% in 2023, down 0.4% and 0.1% from the January forecast.
- The IMF sees the Russian economy contracting by 8.5% in 2022 and by 2.3% in 2023.
- The IMF said that divergence between advanced and emerging market economies is expected to persist, suggesting some 'permanent scarring' from the pandemic.
- The IMF said the medium-term outlook had been revised downwards for all groups except commodity exporters who will likely benefit from the surge in energy and food prices.
- The IMF sees world trade in goods and services expanding by 5% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023, down 1% and 0.5% from the January forecast.