Economists at Credit Suisse continue to see the French election runoff vote on 24 April as an important risk event for EUR/USD. A Le Pen win would most likely push the pair through the 1.0750 mark.

A Macron win could allow EUR/USD to rally as far as the late March lows around 1.0950

“A Le Pen win could easily push EUR/USD through the low end of our target range at 1.0750, setting the immediate target on the March 2020 lows at 1.0636, and likely on 1.0500 below it. A substantial rethinking of our EUR views would likely ensue.”

“A Macron win, while mostly expected, could likely generate some relief, allowing EUR/USD to rally as far as the late March lows around 1.0950. Still, in that scenario, it is unlikely that we would rush to revise our bearish EURUSD views, especially in light of last week’s more dovish than expected ECB rate decision.”