The dramatic strength in USD/JPY looks to be finally stalling near-term at 130. But although analysts at Credit Suisse see risk for finally a pause in the rally and some consolidation the bigger picture outlook stays seen constructive and a sustained move above ‘neckline’ resistance at 127.33 would suggest the completion of an even larger multi-year secular base.

USD/JPY in the process of establishing a multiyear secular base

“Whilst we expect 130.00 to cap at first for some consolidation/pullback, a sustained break above ‘neckline’ resistance at 127.33 would suggest a secular base is forming to warn of a significant further rise over the coming years.”

“Resistance above 130.00 would be seen next at the 78.6% retracement of the 1998/2011 decline at 132.20, ahead of the 2002 high at 135.20. Big picture though, we would see scope for a rise into the 147.62/153.01 zone over the coming years”

“Support at 125.09 is seen needed to hold a setback from 130.00 to keep the immediate risk higher.”