The ruble exchange rate stabilised over the past month. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) board will discuss more key rate cuts at next Friday’s meeting. In the view of economists at Commerzbank, a rate cut will not impact the Russian ruble.

CBR to lower base rate further

“We might expect something in the range of 200bps rate cut next Friday.”

“If indicators are pointing to somewhat lower inflation in the months ahead, CBR can probably afford to take a more forward-looking view than normally.” 

“CBR's rate decision does not carry its usual significance for the FX market, hence whether CBR will cut rates or not next week has negligible implications for the exchange rate.”