European Central Bank (ECB) tightening expectations take a hit. Furthermore, developments in Ukraine are also at a dangerous phase. However, EUR/USD could stabilise in a 1.07-1.08 range before moving lower toward the March 2020 low of 1.0635, economists at ING report. 

Sharp adjustment in ECB tightening expectations

“Having priced 85bp of ECB tightening by year-end last Friday, those expectations have dropped to just 72bp. The ECB debate over whether it hikes 50bp, 75bp or 100bp this year is being rather swamped by the potential 250-300bp adjustments to be made elsewhere in the world.”

“Russia now seems to be targeting Western military aid for Ukraine more directly with attacks on rail infrastructure, questioning whether attacks move closer to the border with NATO partners. Escalation is clearly a risk.”

“For today, EUR/USD can consolidate in a 1.07-1.08 range before making a move towards the March 2020 low at 1.0635.”