Having reached a recent peak in the 0.7661 area in early April, the AUD/USD pair dived on Mondayday back to an intraday low around 0.7135. A weaker outlook for China is the main risk that could prevent the aussie to reach the 0.77 level over the next six months, economists at Rabobank report.

RBA signaling a hawkish position to support AUD

“We maintain that AUD/USD can shift higher in the coming months. This view is based on the improvement in Australia’s terms of trade which stems from higher energy prices linked with the Russia/Ukraine conflict. It also assumes the development of a hawkish stance from the RBA and the likelihood that the USD will finish the year lower vs. a broad basket on currencies. A sharp slowdown in growth in China this year linked with Covid outbreaks is a risk to this view.”

“Australian economic strength and a more hawkish RBA can lift AUD/USD to the 0.77 area on a six-month view.”