Over the long-term, economists at TD Securities continue to like zloty. In their view, EUR/PLN could drop to 4.50 by the end of 2022.

The NBP has been much more decisive in tightening than the ECB

“We continue to hold a long-term positive view on zloty and think that EUR/PLN will fall back to 4.50 by the end of the year.” 

“Although inflation is still of great concern, the NBP has been much more decisive in tightening than the ECB. In addition, it seems that Poland is on a path to resolving the issues that stand in the way of receiving EU pandemic recovery funds.”

“Near-term, the fact that Poland borders Ukraine will likely continue to be a huge driver of zloty volatility.”