USD/JPY uptrend is starting to lose momentum. Support at 128.44/34 needs to hold to suggest the immediate risk stays seen higher for next resistance at the 78.6% retracement of the 2002/2011 fall at 132.20, economists at Credit Suisse report.

Holding above support at 128.44/34 critical to keep the immediate risk higher

“We suspect we may be approaching a near-term peak. Support is seen at 129.70/60 initially, then 129.31, with key near-term support seen at the rising 13-day exponential average and price support at 128.44/34. This needs to hold on a closing basis for a touch more strength yet above 131.25/35 to the 78.6% retracement of the 2002/2011 fall to 132.20. We would look for this to then cap at first for an overdue consolidation phase.” 

“A close below 128.34 would suggest a consolidation phase is underway with support seen next at 127.36 ahead of the 126.95 recent low. Only beneath this latter level though would warn of a near-term top and deeper setback.”