The Polish central bank is expected to raise policy rates by 100bps to combat the high inflation pressures experienced for more than a year. This outcome is already priced-in, therefore, the zloty is set to shrug off the decision, economists at Commerzbank report.

NBP to hike by 100bp

“Poland’s 12.3% inflation rate still warrants a large rate step, although all CEE central banks now have to contend with added real economic risk from the Russia-Ukraine conflict – this might complicate the decision for some MPC members. But from what we could make out from the individual commentaries, most MPC members are emphasising the inflation risk over GDP risk. 

“A 100bp rate hike today appears very likely. This is priced-in and should prove neutral for the zloty.”