Economists at Rabobank see risk of EUR/USD at 1.03 on a one-month and three-month view. What’s more, a clear break of the 2017 low at 1.0341 would make parity a realistic target for the currency pair.

Growth issues are depressing the medium-term outlook for the EUR

“Despite the risk that the Fed may have little option but to drive the US economy into recession in 2023 in order to reclaim its inflation fighting credibility, we now expect that the USD will continue to find solid support into the medium-term as fears over global growth underpin safe haven demand. The EUR is likely to be more sensitive to recessionary fears.”

“Risks facing the eurozone are closely tied to energy security while slowing growth in China is set to be another thorn in the side of the single currency.”

“We recently revised higher our forecast for the USD across the board and lowered our one and three-month targets for EUR/USD to 1.03.” 

“A clear break of the 2017 low at 1.0341 would make parity a realistic target for the currency pair.”