USD/PHP has been remarkably stable despite recent Asian FX volatility. Economists at Credit Suisse expect a larger Philippine trade deficit and a weaker yuan to push USD/PHP towards 53.50. 

Setting a target of 53.50 for USD/PHP

“We think the deterioration in the Philippines’ trade balance is an important factor for the Philippine peso. Wider trade deficits have historically coincided with a rising USD/PHP exchange rate.”

“Strong Philippine imports amid ongoing infrastructure buildout point to depreciation, while recent USD/PHP stability despite rising USD/CNY points to overdue ‘catch-up’ peso weakness.”

“We forecast USD/PHP to rise to 53.50 in the next three months.”