NZD/USD is testing the price high at 0.6556/68. As analysts at Credit Suisse note, this area has to hold to avoid a lengthier reversion back higher.

Break below 0.6421/15, then 0.6310/6288 to shift risk back lower again

“With the daily and weekly MACD still negative and with the moving averages still falling, we retain our bearish view and look for a turn back lower again, with immediate support now seen at 0.6522/21.” 

“A break below 0.6421/15 and then below 0.6310/6288 is needed to shift the short-term risk back lower again and pave the way for a move to the YTD low and major retracement support at 0.6231/13.” 

“A sustained break above 0.6556/68 would signal another lengthy reversion within the 2021/22 downtrend, similar to the July/Oct 2021 and Jan/April 2022 recoveries, with next key resistance seen at the 55-day moving average at 0.6656/93. However, this is not our base case.”