In the view of economists at Rabobank, the US is likely to avoid a recession this year. However, a recession seems inevitable in 2023.

The inevitable recession

“In the US, a recession seems difficult to avoid. Either the exogenous supply shocks are going to bring down business activity or the Fed’s response to high and persistent inflation is going to do the job.” 

The timing of the recession will depend on whether it “is caused by exogenous or endogenous factors. Given the strong labor market and robust consumption and investment at the moment, we think that the endogenous will be decisive. This means it is more likely going to be the recession of 2023 rather than the recession of 2022.”