According to the CNBC CFO Council Survey, an incoming recession is more likely in the first of the next year amid persistently high inflation, which could down the Dow Jones Industrial Average below the 30,000 level.

Key findings

“Over 40% of chief financial officers cite inflation as the No. 1 external risk to their business, and going deeper into the results from the Q2 survey.”

“Almost one-quarter (23%) of CFOs cite Federal Reserve policy as the biggest risk factor.”

“Additional CFOs cited supply chain disruptions (14%) and the Russia-Ukraine war specifically as their No. 1 business risk.”

“68% of CFOs responding to the survey, predict a recession will occur during the first half of 2023.“

“The 10-year Treasury, which has already doubled this year to roughly 3%, is expected to flirt with 4% by the end of 2022, according to 41% of CFOs. An equal percentage of CFOs expect the 10-year to rise to no higher than 3.49% by year-end.”

“77% of CFOs expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall below 30,000 before ever setting a new high, which would represent a decline of over 9% from its current level, and would represent an 18% decline from its 2022 high.”