USD/INR held at the upper end of the 77-78 range in the past month. Economists at Commerzbank expect the Indian rupee to remain under pressure.

Reserve Bank of India to hike further

“RBI has a real battle on its hands and has hiked rates by 90bp to 4.90% in just the past one month. However, this won’t be the end and another 125bp is expected by year-end. Inflation is projected to average well above RBI’s upper threshold of 6%.”

“INR is expected to remain under pressure along with the rest of Asian currencies due to capital outflows, the cautious risk backdrop, and firm USD tone.”

“We continue to look for a supportive tone for USD/INR near term at the upper end of the 76-78 range. RBI is also expected to step up intervention to mitigate INR’s weakness but not offset it altogether.”