What information did the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting contain on EUR/USD? Economists at Commerzbank analyze the future of the world’s most popular currency pair.

ECB's guidance to support the euro

“The ECB provided certainty about the future rate path to an extent that could not have been predicted beforehand. That is at least moderately EUR-positive.”

“There are 100 other factors that will move the EUR exchange rate from now on. That is why nobody can guarantee that in the end EUR/USD will trade at higher levels than pre-ECB. Anyone who believes anything else should stay clear off exchange rate management.”

“Ceteris paribus the combination of ECB statement and market reaction points towards a recovery in EUR/USD.”