Current levels of EUR/PLN represent overshooting to the downside, according to economists at Commerzbank. They forecast EUR/PLN to edge higher towards 4.70 in coming quarters.

EUR/PLN to drift upwards from here

“We see risk that volatility will remain high because of regional geopolitical developments, a rate hike step size reduction from 100 bp to 75 bp by the central bank, and EU disputes.”

“The current zloty exchange rate levels appear slightly stronger than our expectations: our base-case is that EUR/PLN will drift up towards the 4.70 level by year-end.”

“In 2023, we see EUR/PLN gravitate back towards the 4.65 level assuming that the worst of the inflation cycle will come into view by then.”