Citing a new research paper that includes various models analyzed by a senior Federal Reserve economist, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed was seeing a slightly higher than 50% chance of a recession over the next four quarters.

Escalating imbalances in markets for goods and services, as well as the labour market, are cited as primary reasons behind the worsening outlook.

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to this headline and was last seen posting small daily gains at 104.55.