In a benign environment, the EUR was able to further appreciate against USD. However, the risk in EUR/USD remains at the lower end, in the view of economists at Commerzbank.

EUR/USD recovery remains fragile

“It might begin to get more difficult for EUR to appreciate as concerns that the global economy might weaken are likely to put pressure on market sentiment.”

“The risk of an energy crisis in connection with the war in Ukraine remains in place so that it is questionable whether investors will be willing to bank on further EUR gains.”

“It is questionable whether the speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde at the ECB forum in Sintra is going to provide any new momentum for EUR today.”