The S&P 500 rallied 6.5% last week, including a 3.1% gain on Friday. Economists at UBS expect the index to trade around 3,900 in a soft landing scenario by year-end.

S&P 500 to trade around 3,300 if earnings forecasts were revised down to around -15%

“In a soft-landing scenario, in which earnings growth expectations for 2023 are close to flat year-on-year, we would expect the S&P 500 to end the year close to current levels at 3,900.”

“If worsening economic data leads earnings forecasts to be revised down to around -15%, in line with average declines during recessions, we would expect the S&P 500 to trade around 3,300.”