With surging prices crimping demand and the danger of winter energy shortages draining confidence, gross domestic product is likely to advance 2.6% this year and 1.4% in 2023 -- down from May predictions for gains of 2.7% and 2.3%, according to new forecasts from the European Union executive arm seen by Bloomberg. 

Inflation, already at a record that’s more than four times the European Central Bank’s 2% target, is now seen at 7.6% in 2022 and 4% next year, up from 6.1% and 2.7%.

The predictions may still change before they are officially published Thursday. 

Some economists see a recession in Europe as inevitable, even without the Kremlin halting energy supplies, with inflation also likely to remain elevated. That’s complicating the task of the ECB, which is only just embarking on a first interest-rate increase in more than a decade.