Economists at Commerzbank expect a recession in the US next year. Nevertheless, as the picture of an overall still robust US economy remains intact, so is the dollar.

USD remains in demand

“It is true that we expect a recession in the US early next year. But the point at which the US Federal Reserve will have to worry seriously about the economy is still some way off. And uncertainty about the extent to which the US economy will weaken at all is still high. It therefore still seems too early to price a recession into US exchange rates.”

“The retail sales data due tomorrow should confirm the picture of a robust US economy for the time being. So as long as there are no clear signs of an economic slowdown yet, the active course of the Fed should support the USD.”