USD/RUB ended July in the 64.50-65.00 range before dropping to 60.00-60.50 in August. Economists at ING expect the pair to trade at 60 by the end of the third quarter.

Weaker trade balance needed to assure RUB depreciation

“Current account surplus remained at a colossal $28bn in July despite some recovery of imports from China, as the effect of lower Urals prices in July has yet to show itself in August trade figures.”

“The balance of payments continues to favour rouble appreciation in the medium-term, forcing us to expect 60 at the end of 3Q22. However, the EU embargo, which kicks in later this year, should bring the rouble back on a depreciation track in 4Q22.”