Sticky Russian oil output requires a crude rethink. Strategists at ING have revised their forecasts lower.

Oil prices will remain elevated

“Stubborn Russian oil output and weaker than expected demand growth mean the oil market is likely to remain in surplus for the remainder of this year and into early next year, which should limit the upside in oil prices.”

“Limited OPEC spare capacity and uncertainty over how Russian flows will evolve once the EU ban comes into full force should also limit downside in the medium-term.”

“We have lowered our Q322 and Q422 Brent forecasts from $118/bbl and $125/bbl to $100/bbl and $97/bbl respectively. Our full year 2023 Brent forecast has been revised down from $99/bl to $97/bbl.”