USD/CNY has recently broken above the closely watched 6.80 level. Economists at HSBC expect the CNY’s depreciation to be more gradual and modest this time around.

Some potential catalysts could trigger USD/CNY to decline

“Currency-wise, USD/CNY has recently broken above the closely watched 6.80 level. We think this means USD/CNY will likely trade in a new and higher range for the rest of the year and into the first half of next year.”

“USD/CNY jumped significantly in April-May after it broke above 6.40; however, we do not think the upside momentum will be as strong this time around, as China-US yield differentials appear to be stabilising and the CNY’s overvaluation has been pared.”

“Notwithstanding the recent upward momentum, it is possible for USD/CNY to reverse course later and fall instead, triggered by potential catalysts. For example, if US-China trade relations were to improve and/or China’s dynamic zero COVID-19 policy were to relax, USD/CNY could decline instead.”