The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is trading above 3%. But economists at ABN Amro expect yields to slump to 2.55% by the end of the year.

10y Bund yield to fall to 1.1% by Q4

“We expect both Treasury and German bonds to rally from Q4 until mid-2023. We expect the 10y US Treasury yield to slide to 2.55% in Q4 2022. Similarly, we expect 10y Bund yield to fall to 1.1% by Q4 due to US spill-over effects and markets shifting back to risk-off mode, increasing safe-haven demand.” 

“However, as short-term inflation expectations continue to rise, we expect a stronger inversion of the Treasury curve and the Bund curve to bear-flatten in the near-term before steepening again in H2 2023.”