Economists at ANZ Bank do not see any genuine growth driver that can lift GDP meaningfully in Q3 and Q4. They now expect China’sfull-year GDP growth at 3.0% in 2022.

External demand appears to falter

“Unless the economy revives strongly in September, our monthly tracker predicts that GDP growth will likely dip below 3.0% in Q3 this year.”

“The government is inclined to tighten its zero-COVID approach ahead of the 20th Communist Party Congress from 16 October. Domestic activity will likely be disrupted.”

“China’s export cycle is turning as port activity slows and global supply chain activities falter.”

“We have trimmed our 2022 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 4.0% as both domestic and external demand continue to weaken.”