NZD/USD is holding up in the mid-0.61s. US CPI data today will be crucial as will NZ data tomorrow/Thursday, economists at ANZ Bank report. 

Fed Funds rate to peak at 4%

“US Dollar Index has fallen for 3 days in a row and is now about 2.2% off 20-year highs seen last week. This correction has coincided with the rebound in bond yields ahead of US CPI and a lift in market expectations for the Fed Funds rate to peak at 4%, which is a high for the cycle. From that (USD-centric) perspective, the move looks a bit odd, but it’s the rebound of the EUR on news that Ukraine had taken back territory and ECB hawkishness that’s driving FX markets right now. So it’s complicated and arguably a bit fickle, and we’re wary of volatility.”

“NZ C/A and GDP data this week ought to shift the NZD focus back toward domestic factors.” 

“Technical bounce off 0.60 also looks more secure now.”

See – NZ GDP Preview: Forecasts from four major banks, weaker but not a game changer for the OCR