Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 01:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting held in August.

The RBA announced the fourth consecutive rate hike worth 50 basis points (bps) in September but failed to hide the growth concerns, which in turn raised doubts about the future moves of the Aussie central bank and tested the AUD/USD moves.

Although the RBA Minutes is more likely to keep its hawkish bias, the latest challenges for the key customer China and macroeconomic woes could probe the policymakers to adhere to softer rate increases in the future. The hints for such interesting events are likely to be watched in today’s RBA Minutes, making it crucial for the AUD/USD pair traders.

Westpac is on the same line and said,

Further detail on the Board’s views surrounding the current pace of rate hikes will be the key focus of the RBA’s September Meeting Minutes.

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD cheers broad US dollar weakness and cautious optimism in the market, as well as the downbeat US inflation expectations, to print a three-day uptrend around 0.6750.

That said, the Aussie pair’s further upside hinges on how the RBA Minutes manages to keep the bulls happy even if they know that the 50 bps rate hike is given. That being said, talks over the economic transition and neutral rate, as well as surrounding employment conditions, will also be crucial to watch for short-term AUD/USD forecast ahead of this week’s key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Technically, AUD/USD fades bounce off the nine-week-old ascending support line, around 0.6700 by the press time, amid bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, which in turn suggests the Aussie pair’s further weakness.

Key Notes

AUD/USD prints three-day uptrend past 0.6700 with eyes on RBA Minutes, central banks

AUD/USD Forecast: Bulls cautious ahead of RBA Meeting Minutes

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.