Recent indicators suggest a broad-based sharply deteriorating growth outlook. Therefore, economists at Danske Bank expect the EUR/NOK to edge higher over the next few months before easing back lower in 2023.

Q4 headwinds looming for NOK

“We still think EUR/NOK is heading higher over the coming 3-6M driven by a slowdown in growth, a European recession, volatile asset markets and further spread tightening in the short-end of rates curves.” 

“For 2023, we still pencil in a NOK rebound – but timing is tricky. Until we see global central banks signal a shift of policy towards a more dovish direction we prefer to play the weak leg in NOK.”

“We forecast EUR/NOK at 10.60 in 3M and 9.80 in 12M.”