Forint’s carry appeal has become hard to ignore. Analysts at Credit Suisse now target 395 in EUR/HUF over the medium-term.

EUR/HUF still exposed to the upside in the short-term

“We turned medium-term bullish on the forint in the middle of September on the back of sizeable carry and cheap valuations by historical REER standards. We also see scope for Hungary to unlock the EU funds from the 2021-2027 budget (which are currently frozen) later in Q4.”  

“We set an end-quarter target of 395 for EUR/HUF. But in the short-run, the risk that Hungary will see a cut to its EU funds allocation as well as a possible escalation in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, will keep implied volatility abnormally high and EUR/HUF exposed to the upside.”