EUR/USD is holding its gains from last week. Analysts at ING expect the 0.9850/9870 area to cap any rally.

EUR/USD poised to retest 0.95 this month

“News that OPEC+ wants to increase oil prices will not be welcomed across the region. Equally weekend reports suggest that what little remains of Russian gas exports to Europe may dwindle as well – e.g. Italy. As in the UK, the focus in the eurozone is also shifting to the size of fiscal support packages and whether local bond markets can easily digest them.”

“One could argue that intervention (both FX from Asian authorities and in the bond market from UK authorities) is delivering this pause in the dollar's bull trend. But the macro factors which are driving it to remain firmly in place and 0.9850/9870 could prove the limit to the current EUR/USD bounce. Favour a retest of 0.95 in October.”