USD/JPY is trading just below the 150 mark. And as a result, everyone is talking about whether the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) will intervene once again. In the view of economists at Commerzbank, intervention at levels of 150 will be a mistake.

MOF is currently not aiming to defend a particular USD/JPY level

“I am of the view that the MOF is currently not aiming to defend a particular USD/JPY level. Otherwise, it would not have remained inactive when the 146-level was breached after all a few days ago.”

“A strong intervention at 150 would be a technical mistake on the MOF's side. I am certain that in the 1990s and early 2000s the MOF would not have made that mistake. But as that was a long time ago, I cannot be certain that the MOF still knows how leaning against the wind works. For that reason, I cannot promise that we will not see interventions as 150 after all. But I would be surprised.”