USD/JPY treads water around 149 following a volatile start to the week. Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) meeting this Friday could pose a substantial risk to the yen, economists at Commerzbank report.

MOF could rap the FX market on the knuckles again

“Perhaps next Friday will provide an opportunity for the market to attack the yen again. That would be when the BoJ is likely to stick to its ultra-expansionary monetary policy.”

“Even if Japanese monetary and currency politicians principally want more inflation, excessive depreciation speed might be seen as problematical if they have to assume that this speed exceeds the adaptability of the Japanese economy. For that reason, the strategy of leaning against the wind fits in very well with continued expansionary monetary policy. If the market’s understanding of that phenomenon is as limited as that of the commentators whose comments I read this morning, they will be rapped on the knuckles again.”