- When is Australia Retail Sales and how could it affect AUD/USD?
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When is Australia Retail Sales and how could it affect AUD/USD?
Retail Sales Overview
Early Monday in the Asia-Pacific region, Sunday for the rest, the market sees preliminary readings of Australia's seasonally adjusted Retail Sales for September month at 23:30 GMT. Market consensus suggests a neutral MoM print of 0.6%, suggesting the lack of sustained improvement in economic activity after a surprise jump in July.
Given the recently mixed Aussie data and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cautious mood, today’s Aussie Retail Sales appear the key for the AUD/USD traders.
Ahead of the data, Westpac said,
Some slowing in the pace of Australia retail sales growth is expected in September though rising prices should still constitute the bulk of nominal gains (Westpac f/c: 0.3%). Albeit gradual, private sector credit growth should continue easing in September, likely led by housing as rising interest rates weigh on new lending (Westpac f/c: 0.7%). Meanwhile, October’s MI inflation gauge should reflect an above-target rate of inflation.
How could it affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD remains mildly offered around the 0.6400 threshold, mainly due to the market’s risk-off mood and anxiety ahead of this week’s monetary policy moves of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Also challenging the pair buyers are the recently downbeat comments from Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Economic) at the RBA, as well as the market’s hawkish bets on the Fed’s next move.
Given the Aussie central bank’s likely shift towards 0.25% rate hikes, versus a long road for the Fed before hitting the neutral rate, softer or the expected 0.6% MoM prints could keep the bears hopeful. However, major attention will be given to Tuesday’s RBA and Wednesday’s Fed verdicts and hence the quote may portray a sideways performance before the central bank meeting.
Technically, a clear downside break of a two-week-old ascending trend line, around 0.6370 by the press time, appears necessary for the AUD/USD bears to retake control. Also acting as short-term key support is the 21-DMA level surrounding 0.6360.
Key Notes
AUD/USD struggles around 0.6400, Aussie Retail Sales, China PMI and RBA vs. Fed divergence eyed
About Australian Retail Sales
The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
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